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Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia's forests and its carbon balance

机译:塔姆评论:观察到和预计到的气候变化对俄罗斯森林及其碳平衡的影响

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摘要

Russia's boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the mpacts of climate change on Russia's boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia's forests is strongly advised.
机译:俄罗斯的北方森林提供了许多重要的生态系统功能和服务,但它们正日益受到气候变化的影响。这篇综述概述了已观察到的和潜在的未来气候变化对这些森林的影响,并着重于它们的总碳平衡及其驱动变化的过程。我们总结了最近的发现,强调了辐射增加,温度驱动更长的生长季节以及大气中CO2浓度的增加通常会提高植被的生产力,而热浪和干旱往往会降低植被的生产力。对主要碳通量(例如净生物群落产量)的估算表明,俄罗斯森林目前总体上是一个碳汇,但是由于所采用的方法和时间不同,这些估算在碳汇大小方面有所不同。此外,模型预测了森林生物群落的大量分布变化,但它们可能高估了北方森林在过去的迁移速度缓慢的情况下向极移的程度。尽管当前气候变化的其他影响已经很严重,并且预计的影响可能是大规模的和灾难性的,但(气候驱动的)干扰如火灾和昆虫暴发的可能性有望在未来增加。我们得出的结论是,气候变化对俄罗斯北方森林的影响通常以复杂的方式与其他环境和社会变化叠加,而这些发展的相互作用可能加剧现有和未来的挑战。因此,强烈建议为俄罗斯森林开发适应和减缓战略。

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